Sancai Xinyu: The Ukraine-Russia war has fallen into a war of attrition, what’s next?

[New Sancai First Release] According to reports, if casualties continue to develop at the current rate, Russia will lose 500,000 soldiers by the end of 2024. Although European and American international financial and weapons assistance to Ukraine have begun to slow down, it seems to be detrimental to Ukraine. However, judging from the fact that Russia’s current attacks are mainly focused on missiles and drones, Russia is obviously almost exhausted. Therefore, the next step in this war of attrition is still not one-sided.

According to "Business Insider", the British Ministry of Defense quoted data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense as saying that Russia's average daily casualties in Ukraine increased by nearly 300 in 2023.

According to reports, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated that Russia’s casualty figures reflected the decline in the quality of the Russian army after Russia mobilized reservists in September 2022, turning it into “a low-quality, high-quantity mass army.”

According to reports and analysis, Russia adopted a "human sea" tactic in Ukraine, sending a large number of soldiers to the battlefield, resulting in a large number of deaths. This strategy shows that Russia "continues to disregard the lives of its own soldiers and is willing to sacrifice them to achieve [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's goals."

U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that Russian troops have suffered approximately 315,000 casualties since the war began. Putin claimed that the West is Russia's real "enemy" in this war. According to reports, Putin claimed that the militaries of Western countries are working hard to destroy "Russian statehood" and provide weapons to Ukraine to ensure Russia's "strategic defeat" on the battlefield.

Judging from Russia’s recent large-scale use of missiles and drone attacks, Russia has obviously realized that it cannot continue to bear the consequences of casualties of a large number of military personnel. Judging from the fact that the missiles launched by Russia recently seized in Ukraine came from North Korea, Russia is not only short of personnel, but also increasingly short of missiles.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky said on January 7 that Russia’s attack on Ukraine can be defeated, adding that the current battlefield situation remains relatively stable. He said that the war between Ukraine and Russia showed that Europe must develop joint arms production to ensure that the continent can "protect itself" in any possible global situation.

However, the British Ministry of Defense estimates that after the war until now, it may take Russia five to ten years to rebuild a "well-trained and experienced combat-ready force."

In this war, both sides have fallen into a war of attrition. No one has an absolute advantage yet, but it is clear that Russia is fighting against many Western countries on its own. If the Western camp realizes the crisis in Ukraine, I believe it will We will continue to support Ukraine so that Russia must face the more difficult consequences of continued war.

(Author: Fang Mingguang)

(Editor: Jiang Qiming)

(Source of the article: First published by Xinsancai)