Sancai Xinyu: Will the United States face five wars at the same time?

[New Three Talents First Release] Today, as 2023 is coming to an end, the United States has suddenly discovered that it has been involved in, is being involved in, or is likely to be involved in five wars that are launching simultaneously in different regions of the world. This includes the war between Ukraine and Russia that will begin in 2023, the war between Israel and Hamas that will begin in 2024, Iran that is already in a state of war, North Korea that has threatened to actively prepare for war, and of course the most critical issue in the Asia-Pacific region, the Taiwan Strait. Even the United States, currently the most powerful country in the world, cannot cope with the several wars that are happening all over the world at the same time.

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine. So far, although the United States has not officially participated in the war, it is obviously the country that has invested the largest amount of financial and material resources in this war, second only to the belligerents. And the war has so far Two years are about to expire, and the situation is still stalemate.

On October 7, 2023, an armed conflict broke out between Palestinian armed groups led by Hamas and the Israeli army. After more than two months, Israel has also faced the possibility of having to respond to a multilateral war at the same time, that is, it will be simultaneously attacked by Gaza (Hamas), Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. and other attacks by different organizations in seven regions. In this war, the biggest supporter behind Israel is also the United States.

Moreover, since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, it is estimated that there have been as many as 100 Iranian-backed attacks against US bases, ships and service personnel throughout the Middle East, and have even directly caused serious injuries to US soldiers. Iran acts through its proxies and proxies, including the Houthis, Iraqi militias, Hezbollah and others. The United States is facing a decision point on whether to formally go to war against Iran.

At the same time, North Korean official media reported on December 28 that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had ordered his military, arms industry and nuclear weapons sector to speed up war preparations in response to its unprecedented confrontational actions against the United States. Of course, Taiwan is about to hold a presidential election in mid-January next year. On the Taiwan Strait issue, the United States is also the major country that is really engaging in multi-faceted wrestling with China on the table.

In other words, at the beginning of 2024, the United States is likely to face a severe international situation unprecedented in its founding, that is, facing the risk of five different regional wars at the same time, and all these areas with possible war risks, Several countries that are major opponents of the United States all possess nuclear weapons (or are about to possess nuclear weapons, such as Iran).

And even without considering the use of any nuclear weapons, the United States cannot simultaneously launch large-scale formal war operations with traditional force on so many battlefields at the same time, because it requires not only military power, but also the entire country's finances, manpower, etc. At that time, any war may plunge the United States into a quagmire from which it cannot escape.

Alan M. Dershowitz, Felix Frankfurt Professor Emeritus of Law at Harvard Law School, recently published a commentary on Iran that may provide a perspective.

For now, he said, "this could be our Munich moment."

He was referring to the fact that on the eve of World War II, the Western Allies, especially Britain and France, sought to negotiate a "peace of our time" with Nazi Germany in order to avoid war.

But "they failed, resulting in tens of millions of deaths."

So Dershowitz said that if the Western powers attacked Germany before it was strong enough to take over almost all of Europe, while many people would die initially, many more would be saved in the end?

He believes that "we must not allow these historical mistakes to be repeated, especially in the nuclear age." "Iran must be stopped. It must stop now."

Hamas's barbaric attack on Israel on October 7 reminded Israelis of the consequences of miscalculation, weakness and lack of preparation if action is delayed. But it’s not just Israel, it’s ultimately the United States that is a microcosm of what could happen if Iran and its proxies are allowed to acquire a nuclear arsenal.

(Author: Fang Mingguang)
(Editor: Jiang Qiming)
(Source of the article: First published by Xinsancai)